415 Squadron  Association

The Government of Canada has announced that the CP140 Aurora will be replaced by the P-8A Poseidon.  It is expected that a new fleet of 16 aircraft will be fully operational by 2032.   The following opinion piece written by Ernie Cable posits that Canada made the right choice when choosing the Boeing P-8A, developed from the BOEING 737-NG (New Generation) airliner.

Written by Colonel (Ret'd) Ernest Cable

The federal government’s Nov. 30 announcement to replace CP-140 Aurora aircraft with the Boeing P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Aircraft (CMMA) is the right choice for Canada.

Bombardier had previously announced its intension to submit a maritime derivative of the Bombardier Global 6500 business jet as its CMMA candidate to replace the Aurora. The media emphasized Bombardier’s “Made-in-Canada” proposal would provide industrial benefits to Canada’s aviation industry, create tech jobs for Canadians and promote leading Canadian technology.

After the government’s announcement of the sole-source purchase of 16 American-built P-8A aircraft for $10 billion, the Canadian aviation industry called for an open competitive process to select either the Bombardier or Boeing proposal. The government deemed the Bombardier proposal unacceptable as it was not yet built, and therefore no empirical performance or industrial benefits data to compare with the P-8A.

Although government sponsorship of the development of the Bombardier CMMA proposal had potential for greater economic benefits for Canada, the development risk, and higher costs to be borne by the Canadian taxpayer were unsupportable.

This assessment was based on previous experience in 2015-17 when the federal and Quebec governments spent billions of dollars to sponsor development of Bombardier’s flagship C-Series commercial airliner. However, the program failed because of production delays, mechanical problems, and soaring development costs that placed Bombardier in an untenable financial situation. The company was forced to sell the C-Series to Airbus, a European company, which took over development and produced the successful A220 airliner.Article content.

Canada did not give serious consideration to the Japanese-built Kawasaki P-1 surveillance aircraft, since it was previously rejected by the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand in favour of the P-8A for a variety of reasons. More critically, the P-1 is not fully interoperable with the P-8A already in use by Canada’s defence partners.

The assessment of the Boeing P-8A, developed from the Boeing 737-NG (New Generation) airliner, overwhelmingly supported the selection of the P-8A. The P-8A has a proven capability with over 160 aircraft currently in service with eight of Canada’s defence partners, successfully accumulating over 500,000 flight hours on maritime, littoral, and overland profiles similar to those stipulated by the RCAF.

Boeing publicly disclosed that its $7-billion development cost to convert the 737-NG airliner to the P-8A is being amortized over the sale of more than 160 aircraft. After extensive test and evaluation, Boeing guaranteed a 25-year life span for the P-8A and the U.S. Navy prime customer deemed the P-8A operationally effective and suitable for service.

Boeing already has a significant presence in Canada and scores highly on industrial benefits. Currently, it annually contributes $5.3 billion to the Canadian economy and supports 20,000 jobs. For the P-8A program, Boeing has partnered with several major Canadian aerospace companies, annually generating about $357 million per year to Canada’s GDP and more than 2,900 jobs per year for the first 10 years of the contract. Team Poseidon builds on the 81 Canadian companies that have provided $10 million in Canadian content to every P-8A that has ever been built, accruing more than $1.5 billion in economic benefits. The logistical support network is largely in place as the P-8A shares 86 per cent commonality with Boeing 737-NG aircraft, 4,000 of which are in service today, with over 100 operated by Canadian airlines.

According to NATO, Russia’s submarine presence in the Atlantic has reached unprecedented levels in recent years and China now boasts a fleet of over 70 modern submarines. To counter such threats, allies will need to focus on interchangeability, where one allied aircraft seamlessly replaces another in the anti-submarine fight without any question as to its capability, capacity, or alignment with allied procedures. The doctrinal shift from employing common capabilities to interchangeability is a profound change, as it effectively dictates national procurement strategies. The shift to seamless integration in anti-submarine warfare implies that if eight of Canada’s allies are operating the P-8A, then Canada should be operating the same aircraft.Article content
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The selection of the Boeing P-8A provides long-term industrial benefits to Canada’s aviation industry and creates a continuum of tech jobs for Canadians. The RCAF’s airmen and airwomen will have a proven surveillance aircraft to project Canada’s global interests in multi-national coalitions for next 40 to 50 years.

Colonel (RCAF Retired) Ernest Cable was the Director of Requirements during the development of the CP-140 Aurora. He was the Commanding Officer of the RCAF’s first operational Aurora squadron and Deputy Commander of the RCAF Air Group responsible for Aurora operations.Article content